On June 7th a country risk survey published by Euromoney placed the country at 178, with an overall score of 9.30 out of a possible 100.

Minister Lovell told the Lower House of Parliament on Thursday that the investigation by Ministry technicians and the Financial Services Regulatory Commission (FSRC) has revealed that the country rankings are based on a survey of ratings provided by experts and, according to Euromoney, ‘combined with data from the IMF/ World Bank on debt indicators; a survey of debt syndicate managers at international banks on access to capital; and Moodys/Fitch credit ratings.’

He said that of the 235 experts whose ratings were included in the survey, six persons had rated Antigua and Barbuda.

The Minister outlined Euromoney’s assessment methodology, which is divided into qualitative and quantitative risk factors, with the former assessing political, economic and structural risk.

He commented that in the case of the Political Risk factors, “Antigua and Barbuda has a stable government, with legislative checks and balances enshrined in the Integrity in Public Life and Freedom of Information Acts. We are paying our debts for the first time in 30 years! We have been doing everything possible from a legislative standpoint to strengthen our regulatory and policy environment. Internet access is extensive and increasing; the consultative process is a regular feature of our democracy and Talk Radio, no matter how vitriolic, is allowed its free reign.”

He said the score of 17.73 out of 100 in this category, “defies comprehension”.

Minister Lovell also questioned the 8.5 awarded to Antigua and Barbuda in the Economic Risk category.

“Even taking into account the misfortune of the Stanford fallout, there are other mitigating factors that should have been considered and resulted in a score substantially in excess of that awarded by the six.

We have a stable currency with an exchange rate that has remained fixed for decades.  Our GDP outlook is in step with many other economies. While unemployment is of concern, we have a robust system of safety nets in place. And with respect to Government finances, we have over the past five years improved our management and administrative systems.”

The Finance and Economy Minister said that in the area of Structural Risk, Antigua and Barbuda has an extensive road network, pipe borne water and electricity in over 90 per cent of households, schools within ten minutes of most communities and widespread telephone connectivity. Citizens have unfettered access to education and health care, and human rights are protected and respected. Yet the score in this regard was 13.75.

Antigua and Barbuda scored zero in all the quantitative risk factors (access to capital markets and bank financing, as well as debt indicators and sovereign credit ratings) notwithstanding, said the Minister, the steps taken by this administration to reschedule long outstanding external and domestic debt obligations.

He told the Parliament, “Considering all the criteria listed above and their respective weights, one can be forgiven if he or she were totally mystified as to how Antigua and Barbuda would have been accorded a rating lower than Afghanistan, Iraq and North Korea.  On the other hand, the relatively high ratings accorded countries such as Iceland and Greece do not comport with their economic prospects as forecast by a number of reputable multinational institutions.”

Minister Lovell also questioned the relatively low ratings accorded to Barbados and other Eastern Caribbean countries.

Minister Lovell said the volatility and inconsistency of Antigua’s ratings over the years points to a highly subjective ratings process, which is open to manipulation.

 “In 2000, we were ranked at number 174.  In March of 2010, we climbed to 102 out of 186.  Since then our macroeconomic indicators have improved significantly. Government finances have improved by 19 per cent. We have reduced our debt to GDP ratio by 22 percentage points. But our position has fallen from 102 to 178. Certainly, a little bit of investigative journalism would have uncovered these facts and nuances.”