The economic slowdown in the subregion will be less pronounced than that of Latin America as a whole (3.1%). However, economic growth in 2010 will reach only 0.5%, lower than the regional average. This is due particularly to the weak performance of countries that depend on tourism and financial services (Bahamas, Barbados, Jamaica, and the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union).

Economic recovery in countries that rely on the extraction of natural resources (Guyana, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and to a certain extent, Belize) will depend largely on the evolution of basic commodity prices.

Moreover, many of these countries receive significant amounts of remittances, and so private demand may be determined by the recovery of remittance flows.

While the crisis found Latin America in a better macroeconomic position than in prior crises, most Caribbean nations maintain high levels of public debt and low international reserves. In many cases, the public debt exceeds 70% of GDP, and, with the exception of three countries, international reserves could not cover over 3.3 months of imports in 2008.

In addition, many of these countries have high current account deficits in their balance of payments - in some cases, over 20% of GDP-, severely limiting the fiscal margin to implement countercyclical policies.

ECLAC notes that, although fixed or quasi-fixed exchange rate regimes in almost all of the subregion have become a valuable instrument for anchoring expectations and reducing inflation, they have also involved sustained and significant appreciations of the bilateral real exchange rate, owing to the inflation differential with the United States.

The currency appreciation, together with large current account deficits, high levels of public debt and low international reserves, add up to a very difficult situation in terms of sustaining the exchange-rate regimes, particularly given the difficulty of access to external financing.

In Jamaica, which has a floating exchange-rate regime, the currency has depreciated considerably, while the government negotiates with international financial institutions.

Countries with abundant natural resources, such as Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago,  have in recent years posted surpluses on both the fiscal and external accounts, so they were better placed to sustain their quasi-fixed exchange-rate regimes.